The playbook has changed. Retail is concentrated, margins are tighter, and risk sits earlier in the cycle. So how are serious operators actually making decisions right now? For this Melbourne Toy Fair edition, senior leaders from privately owned businesses speak plainly about leverage, discipline, and what will separate winners from survivors in the next phase.
What has fundamentally changed in how you assess opportunity today versus three years ago?
Three years ago, the opportunity looked bigger! Today, it looks like real and repeatable. Which leads me to one of our favourite words, replenishment! We’re less interested in how high the ceiling is and far more focused on whether the floor actually exists. Scale without stability potentially means we fall straight through it. What sells on shelf now matters more than what looks good in a sales deck… (which means my Photoshop skills haven’t been called upon as much of late 😉).
If something can’t show traction quickly, survive the margin squeeze, and earn its space through repeat demand, it’s not an opportunity, but more like one of our science experiments conducted without goggles or adult supervision!
In a world of tighter ranges and faster judgement, resilience really matters. The best opportunities don’t just suggest upside; they demonstrate they can stay standing once retail takes a swing at it.
With retail so concentrated, where do you now see genuine leverage—product, brand, relationships, or execution?
Relationships make the world go round… well, they at least get you into the room, but they don’t do the job for you. It ties into the previous question. Execution ultimately wins.
The product will get us noticed and the brands will get us remembered, however, execution will keep us there! Retailers don’t need more ideas; they need fewer headaches. The companies that simplify, deliver on time (I hope our warehouse team are reading 😉), and don’t create those headaches surprises quietly punch well above their weight.
What’s the one thing suppliers consistently underestimate about working with major retailers today?
I have been told that this doesn’t apply to us as we don’t underestimate anything… 😊 However, it’s not really about R&R anymore. Not rest and relaxation, or even ‘range and reviews’, but it’s more around the risk element.
How much risk the retailer is carrying. Inventory, reputation, margin, execution etc. Suppliers often think they’re pitching a product, but the retailers feel like they’re approving a business case. The best suppliers don’t sell items, they sell confidence! The best suppliers don’t just sell toys; they reduce the risks.
Are we in a defensive cycle, or the early stages of a new growth model for the industry?
Both! We are defensive on costs, but aggressive on thinking and creative. The days of launching big, throwing a TVC campaign behind the hero and watching it burn are gone. We’re moving into a model where you must test smaller and smarter, learn faster, and earn your way to scale. You need to build momentum. There’s a level of protection there, but you need to do things differently and adapt if you want to survive.
Looking ahead 3–5 years, what capability will most clearly separate winners from survivors?
Commercial agility. The ability to keep your footing as the ground shifts. Across ranges, pricing, sourcing and channels etc., without losing any balance. The winners won’t be the biggest brands in the aisle; they’ll be the ones that stay upright when others stumble.
This article also appeared in Edition 53 of The Bugg Report Magazine
