I recently released a Born to License podcast episode about which movies I anticipate will do well in consumer products licensing this year. Looking at 2025, the clear breakout hit was K-Pop Demon Hunters. So much so that not even Netflix was prepared.
Retailers weren’t sold and neither were licensees. As a result, consumers were left with a limited range of products with key categories not in play. This resulted in the likes of Good Morning America, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal reporting on the ‘Halloween Horror’ of parents not being able to get their hands on licensed K-Pop Demon Hunters costumes for trick or treating.
Disney’s licensing juggernaut Stitch, which made a surprising comeback in 2024, celebrated a huge tentpole moment when the live action Lilo & Stitch surpassed $1 billion at the box office. A licensing dream. Wicked: For Good didn’t perform at the box office at the level of the first film, but from what I could see, it still had a robust and successful consumer products roll-out.
Our Born to License clients Steven Singer Jewelers and WOLFpak both had success with their Wicked licensed collections. Other properties that appeared to perform well at the box office and in consumer products included Zootopia 2, A Minecraft Movie and Superman.
The K-Pop Demon Hunters situation perfectly illustrates why consumer products can’t be reactive. Netflix approached toy companies years before release, but the response was reportedly lukewarm. By the time the film became Netflix’s most-watched title in history – surpassing 500 million views – it was too late for the 2025 holiday season.
Netflix has since corrected course dramatically, making both Mattel and Hasbro co-master toy licensees. This unprecedented arrangement demonstrates confidence in the franchise’s potential, with products expected from Spring 2026 onward.
Looking Ahead to 2026
After analyzing the 2026 slate, three clear winners emerge:
- Toy Story 5 (June) is likely to be the year’s most bulletproof licensing play. Despite being the fifth installment, Toy Story will be unavoidable at retail – just as Toy Story 4 was in 2019.
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day (July 31) is another guaranteed winner. Spider-Man consistently ranks as the single most licensed character in entertainment. One of our clients reports Spider-Man as their number one seller by far – without a movie currently in theaters. With Tom Holland and Zendaya returning, this will be massive.
- Avengers: Doomsday (December 18) rounds out my top tier (accounting for potential superhero fatigue). The Russo Brothers return with Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom. I expect every major retailer to dedicate significant space to this program.
Disney dominates 2026 with these three properties, plus The Mandalorian and Grogu and Moana live-action also bringing major tentpole moments to 2026. Universal stays competitive with Minions 3 and Super Mario Galaxy Movie, while Netflix makes a major play with Greta Gerwig’s Narnia.
However, the real story transcends theatrical releases. The true winners are evergreen brands – Hello Kitty, Harry Potter, Peanuts, Classic Disney – that drive year-round sales independent of any tentpole moment. Sony’s recent Peanuts acquisition – which valued the business at US$1.1 billion – wasn’t based on a theatrical slate; it valued predictable, consistent consumer products performance 365 days a year.
The Lesson?
Success requires betting on properties 18-24 months before audiences do. But the bigger insight? In licensing, showing up every day matters more than any blockbuster.
David Born is the Founder and CEO of Born Licensing, Born to License and Learn to License — leading an ecosystem that helps brands unlock entertainment IP, with experience working alongside companies like Disney, Google, and Warner Bros.
This article also appeared in Edition 53 of The Bugg Report Magazine
